This general introduction to the mathematical techniques needed to understand epidemiology begins with an historical outline of some disease statistics dating from Daniel Bernoulli's smallpox data of 1760. In this spirit we consider three models for epidemics to illustrate possible prevention policies of control by (a) education, (b) immunization, and (c) screening and quarantine. Professors John Sterman, Hazhir Rahmandad, and Nelson Repenning . Fall 2013 .

System Dynamics Group . Toward Epidemic Prediction: Federal Efforts and Opportunities in Outbreak Modeling 3 Introduction The Threat of Emerging Infectious Disease Outbreaks Infectious disease outbreaks have surprised humanity throughout history. Recent well publicised outbreaks such as swine u in 2009, see The Independent (2010) article reporting on the cost of the outbreak, and the 2014 Models use basic assumptions or collected statistics along with mathematics to find parameters for various infectious diseases and use those parameters to calculate the effects of different interventions, like mass vaccination programmes. Group discussion of videos watched – Mainly focus on 3Blue1Brown videos Discussion of known facts about Covid-19/SARS-CoV-2 Joint look at news articles and websites – Discussion of exponential growth Introduction to SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model Excel demonstration of SIR model Other models: SEIR, others Modeling using python (time-permitting) Assignment 1 . Modelling the epidemic To answer these questions, we will build a simple compartmental model to simulate the spread of infectious disease in the city. Mathematical models can project how infectious diseases progress to show the likely outcome of an epidemic and help inform public health interventions. Cambridge University Press, May 28, 2001 - Mathematics - 213 pages. 978-0-521-01467-0 - Epidemic Modelling: An Introduction D. J. Daley and J. Gani Frontmatter More information. Modeling epidemics with differential equations Ross Beckley1, Cametria Weatherspoon1, Michael Alexander1, Marissa Chandler1, Anthony Johnson2, and Ghan S Bhatt1 1Tennessee State University, 2Philander Smith College. Models use basic assumptions or collected statistics along with mathematics to find parameters for various infectious diseases and use those parameters to calculate the effects of different interventions, like mass vaccination programmes. D. J. Daley, J. Gani. An Introduction to Stochastic Epidemic Models 5 3.1 SIS Epidemic Model In an SIS epidemic model, there is only one independent random variable, I(t), because … As an epidemic breaks out, its transmission dynamics varies significantly , depending on the geographical locations of the initial infection and its connectivity with the rest of the city.